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One In a Million
— What’s Worse Than Death? — Right here, at the beginning of our penultimate COVID-19 email… I’d like to take a moment to mourn. It’s very possible you haven’t taken a moment to let it all settle in. What we’ve lost. For us, it was Dolly, the
Monty Hall
—— Should I switch, or stay? —– Let’s begin our review all the way back at the beginning, with our very first email about risk… Bad Priors. [https://nolessthan.acemlna.com/lt.php?notrack=1¬rack=1&s=bad97c655476f96a390a72c05a742011&i=34A39A2A148] Everyone comes to situations of risk with
All In Our Heads
— What’s left to do but go to the beach? — As we come into the home stretch of our latest series of emails.. (Dealing with risk, uncertainty, and how to think about the Coronavirus pandemic)… You may have noticed that I’ve been avoiding something. I’ve been completely mute
Missionaries
This post was originally an email sent to theBetter Questions Email List [http://betterquestionsemail.com/].For more like it,please sign up – it’s free. [http://betterquestionsemail.com/] —– How do we create Common Knowledge? —– We start this week with a riddle. It’s a famous one, so no Googling…give
False Positive
This post was originally an email sent to theBetter Questions Email List [http://betterquestionsemail.com/].For more like it,please sign up – it’s free. [http://betterquestionsemail.com/] —- How scared should I be? —- For the past few weeks we’ve been discussing risk and uncertainty. Riskis a situation
No Basis
——– On what basis? ——– Over the past few weeks we’ve built a system for understanding how we make decisions. First, we needed to understand that people come to problems with differentpriors – good and bad. Then, we needed to understand the importance of consulting thebase rate. Last week, we added a
8 Months To Live
This post was originally an email sent to theBetter Questions Email List [http://betterquestionsemail.com/].For more like it,please sign up – it’s free. [http://betterquestionsemail.com/] —— How worried should I be that I have 8 months to live? —— So far, we’ve discussed how we make decisions involving
Map Meets Territory
This post was originally an email sent to theBetter Questions Email List [http://betterquestionsemail.com/].For more like it,please sign up – it’s free. [http://betterquestionsemail.com/] —— What is the territory? —— In our last email, we discussed the fact that we rarely come to a decision withoutany data. We
The Beauty Contest
This post was originally an email sent to theBetter Questions Email List [http://betterquestionsemail.com/]. For more like it,please sign up – it’s free. [http://betterquestionsemail.com/] Since we’ve all had enough of being cooped up inside and self-quarantining… Let’s imagine a simpler time. You’re walking
Bad Priors
This post was originally an email sent to theBetter Questions Email List [http://betterquestionsemail.com/].For more like it,please sign up – it’s free. [http://betterquestionsemail.com/] “The map is not the territory.” Alfred Korzybski Are you confused by the decisions people make? I am. Do you struggle to
